January 3, 2020: Trump Toys with Starting a War with Iran

 

1/3/20: On the third day of a new year, the president decides it might be fun to provoke a war with Iran.

 

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Idiocy has been a guiding principle.

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With that, he orders a drone strike that kills a top Iranian general, Qassem Soleimani, a man known to have organized numerous attacks against U.S. forces over the last decade and more. 

Whether or not this was wise or ill-advised we will know only as events unfold. We do know it was risky. And if we look at Trump’s “thinking” on the subject of Iran over the last few years, we come away knowing that idiocy has been a guiding principle. Donald J. Trump’s tenuous grasp on the complexities and realities of foreign relations bodes ill for the future. 

Take, for example, this tweet in September 2011. “The Iranians have just threatened to send warships to our coasts. They laugh at us. We can’t allow them to develop nuclear weapons.” 

Trump wanted to make President Obama sound as if he were weak. But Iran never sent warships “to our coasts.” Nor was there any proof that they intended or even had the capacity to do so.

 

We had this Trump tweet that October: “Why aren’t we getting any oil from Iraq before we leave? We are leaving the country wide open for Iran. Big mistake.”  

Yes, big mistake to leave Iraq open for Iran! 

Since the drone strike that killed Soleimani was carried out while he was on Iraqi soil, Iraq’s parliament has voted to expel all 5,200 U.S. troops in their country. That would be “leaving the country wide open for Iran.”

 

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TRUMP HAS made it a habit to offer up bold Twitter predictions, almost all of which prove baseless. Our current president repeatedly said his predecessor would attack Iran to insure his reelection. 

11/14/11: @BarackObama will attack Iran in the not too distant future because it will help him win the election. 

 

10/9/12: Now that Obama’s poll numbers are in tailspin – watch for him to launch a strike in Libya or Iran. He is desperate.

 

9/16/13: I predict that President Obama will at some point attack Iran in order to save face!

 

In those days, when all Trump had to do was punch a few buttons on his phone – which, come to think of it, is all he really does now – he was sure, if he were in charge, he could quickly resolve any problem. “How far has the United States gone down when we are reduced to accept the imbecilic deal just agreed to with Iran,” he tweeted in November 2013. 

Obama, he said, should have, “Read THE ART OF THE DEAL!” 

In February 2014, Citizen Trump offered up another heaping helping of stupidity. “Do you think [Sec. of State] John Kerry is aware of the fact that they are building nuclear weapons in Iran and North Korea and Pakistan already has them!!” 

First, we should note that the Iranians never built a single nuclear weapon while Obama and Kerry were in charge. 

Second, North Korea produced its first nuclear weapons during the years Bush 43 was in office. Everyone who could read a newspaper knew that. 

Third, North Korea has continued to expand its nuclear arsenal in the years Trump has been in the White House. 

Fourth, Pakistan started its nuclear weapons program in the 1970s and announced it had nukes in 1998.

 

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IN THOSE DAYS, Trump could tweet about how everything would be better if he were in charge. 

2/23/15: The talks between the U.S. and Iran are going on forever, WORLD’S LONGEST NEGOTIATION. Obama has no idea what he is doing - incompetent!

 

3/31/15: Via @FoxNewsInsider as seen on @foxandfriends: “Trump: Iran Nuke Talks Should Have Taken One Day”

 

Yes! Obama should have worked out an Iran deal in one day. You wonder why Trump’s not getting a deal done with Iran in the next 24 hours. 

Or the last 24. 

Citizen Trump kept attacking: 

4/1/15: Obama’s offer to Iran will not stop Iran’s breakout capability. It is a bad, desperate deal negotiated from weakness. Pass sanctions!

 

So, let’s be clear, clearer, clearest. Nuclear weapons produced by Iran during Obama’s eight years in office: 

0.

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DONALD J.’S grasp of the issues never went deeper than what he might spew in a tweet. There’s no evidence since he took office that his grasp of important matters is any more nuanced. 

For instance: 

8/11/15: The #IranDeal is a catastrophe that must be stopped. Will lead to at least partial world destruction & make Iran a force like never before.

 

Yet, we know the following countries and organizations signed on to the deal worked out by the Obama administration. They believed it would keep Iran from developing nuclear weapons until at least 2025: 

China 

European Union 

France 

Germany 

Russia  

United Kingdom 

Now that Trump has backed out of the deal the Iranians have said they will begin breaching treaty limits and produce as much nuclear fuel as they like.

 

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Hiroshima after being hit by an atomic bomb.

All discussions of nuclear war should be conducted by serious individuals.

Not Twitter dopes.

WITH PRESIDENT TRUMP it’s impossible to tell where he stands on basic policy. Does he, for instance, care what happens to the people of the Middle East? Or does he only care about oil? When he first took office, Trump was on an anti-Muslim crusade. His base was terrified. They believed Obama was a Muslim. All the Muslims in the world were out to kill us! 

 

Many refugees from these countries were Christians. 

So, we had to block immigration entirely from the Muslim world. Trump tweeted simplistic warning: 

2/12/17: 72% of refugees admitted into U.S. (2/3 -2/11) during COURT BREAK-DOWN [the federal courts had blocked a travel ban implemented by the Trump administration] are from 7 countries: SYRIA, IRAQ, SOMALIA, IRAN, SUDAN, LIBYA & YEMEN

 

Our newly-elected president should have known that many refugees from these countries were Christians. Many were Muslims, but had worked for the U.S. military. That made them unpopular in their own countries. They sought safety in America, a nation they helped during the war. 

Eventually, he realized that not all Muslims were bad. He decided he liked Iranians if they protested against their government: 

12/31/17: Big protests in Iran. The people are finally getting wise as to how their money and wealth is being stolen and squandered on terrorism. Looks like they will not take it any longer. The USA is watching very closely for human rights violations!

 

Of course, under Trump administration policies, if any leaders of those protests might need to flee to avoid arrest or execution, they would not be welcome as refugees in this country.

 

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WHAT ABOUT OBAMA? When it came to dealing with Iran, Trump wanted us to know that Obama was weak and pathetic. 

Trump was a stud: 

7/8/18: Iranian Harassment of U.S. Warships: 2015: 22 [incidents] 2016: 36 2017: 14 2018: 0 Source: @USNavy

 

And with Trump you got bluster. In July 2018 he hit the caps button and started shouting at the Iranians via Twitter. 

To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE. WE ARE NO LONGER A COUNTRY THAT WILL STAND FOR YOUR DEMENTED WORDS OF VIOLENCE & DEATH. BE CAUTIOUS! 

 

Tweeting, of course, is not the same as conducting diplomacy. So, you had to wonder when Trump was going to get around to working out that “one day” deal with Iran. That was the one he promised he could pull off if he were president. (Kind of like he said “repeal and replace” would be easy.) 

Trump kept insisting that Iran was behind all kinds of trouble in the Middle East. For once, he was right. Well, then, what better way to stand up to Iran than to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria! 

And to make that decision to withdraw so suddenly that the U.S. commander in the region said he was caught by surprise.

 

Which meant Trump had to tweet on the topic: 

Getting out of Syria was no surprise. I’ve been campaigning on it for years, and six months ago, when I very publicly wanted to do it, I agreed to stay longer. Russia, Iran, Syria & others are the local enemy of ISIS. We were doing there work. Time to come home & rebuild. #MAGA

 

At last, we were bringing our troops home! 

Or not. 

Trump almost immediately reversed course and said he was sending most of the troops he was pulling out of Syria to Iraq, and then sent several hundred U.S. troops to eastern Syria to guard the oil. That’s a key consideration in Trump foreign policy. He likes oil. He wants to keep oil. He wants oil to be safe. He likes oil way more than he likes actual people. 

There were reports in May 2019 that Trump wouldn’t listen to advisers. He was too lazy to dive into details of foreign policy. He was too impatient to listen to briefings. He was too incurious to ask questions. 

 

Trump talks (stupidly) about nuclear war. 

These stories riled him up and he turned defensive: 

5/15/19: ....Different opinions are expressed [in cabinet meetings] and I make a decisive and final decision - it is a very simple process. All sides, views, and policies are covered. I’m sure that Iran will want to talk soon.

 

That prediction also proved incorrect; but more bluster followed: 

5/19/19: If Iran wants to fight, that will be the official end of Iran. Never threaten the United States again!

 

(See also: “Fire and fury” for North Korea.) 

We even heard Trump say he could end the war in Afghanistan in ten days if he killed 10 million Afghans. 

(Technically, since he was threatening nuclear holocaust, we should point out that any madman could end a war in ten days, assuming he was willing to wipe entire populations from the surface of the earth.) 

Trump’s tweets often sounded juvenile: 

6/2/19: Hearing word that Russia, Syria and, to a lesser extent, Iran, are bombing the hell out of Idlib Province in Syria, and indiscriminately killing many innocent civilians. The World is watching this butchery. What is the purpose, what will it get you? STOP!

 

The Iranians were not dissuaded by a Twitter shout. An attack was launched on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. On June 13, Trump had to admit, “‘It is the assessment of the U.S. government that Iran is responsible for today’s attacks in the Gulf of Oman....’ @StateDept @SecPompeo.” 

Nine days later, he ordered air strikes after the Iranians shot down a U.S. drone. At the last minute, he aborted the mission. 

Time for Twitter excuses. First, it wasn’t his fault he couldn’t get a deal with Iran. It was still Obama’s fault, even though he left office on January 20, 2017. 

Iran cannot have Nuclear Weapons! Under the terrible Obama plan, they would have been on their way to Nuclear in a short number of years, and existing verification is not acceptable. We are putting major additional Sanctions on Iran on Monday. 

 

Then we had this head-scratcher. “I never called the strike against Iran ‘BACK,’ as people are incorrectly reporting,” Trump howled. “I just stopped it from going forward at this time!” 

The vague phrase “a short number of years” was of course telling. The signatories to the deal had agreed that Iran would not produce weapons-grade nuclear materials before 2025. And international inspectors would check up on the Iranians until 2030. By comparison, Kim Jong-un and the North Koreans have accelerated nuclear production since Trump took office. 

In other words, nuclear diplomacy is hard. Harder than “One Day Deal” Donald ever imagined. 

That meant threats would have to suffice: 

7/3/19: Iran has just issued a New Warning. Rouhani says that they will Enrich Uranium to ‘any amount we want’ if there is no new Nuclear Deal. Be careful with the threats, Iran. They can come back to bite you like nobody has been bitten before!

 

Iran responded by threatening U.S. naval vessels in the Persian Gulf, whereas Trump had often said before that such threats during Obama’s time in office proved that Obama was not respected: 

7/18/19: I want to apprise everyone of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz today, involving #USSBoxer, a U.S. Navy amphibious assault ship. The BOXER took defensive action against an Iranian drone....

 

Next, we had Trump lying. “The Fake News is saying that I am willing to meet with Iran, ‘No Conditions.’ That is an incorrect statement (as usual!).” 

 

As it turned out, the “Fake News” people were only reporting what Secretary of State Pompeo and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin had said. Trump would meet with the Iranians without preconditions.

 

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FINALLY, in December 2019, Iranian proxy forces in Iraq launched a mortar attack on a U.S. base. The U.S. retaliated with airstrikes on bases controlled by pro-Iranian militias inside Iraq. 

On December 31, Trump tweeted: 

Iran killed an American contractor, wounding many. We strongly responded, and always will. Now Iran is orchestrating an attack on the U.S. Embassy in Iraq. They will be held fully responsible. In addition, we expect Iraq to use its forces to protect the Embassy, and so notified!

 

....Iran will be held fully responsible for lives lost, or damage incurred, at any of our facilities. They will pay a very BIG PRICE! This is not a Warning, it is a Threat. Happy New Year!

 

Ah, that incongruous: “Happy New Year.” 

So Trumpian.

 

Finally, the president ordered the drone strike and Soleimani was killed. This meant it was time to tweet-praise himself. Where other presidents had failed, he had not failed. Trump was the best! 

The United States has paid Iraq Billions of Dollars a year, for many years. That is on top of all else we have done for them. The people of Iraq don’t want to be dominated & controlled by Iran, but ultimately, that is their choice. Over the last 15 years, Iran has gained more.... 

 

...and more control over Iraq, and the people of Iraq are not happy with that. It will never end well! 

 

General Qassem Soleimani has killed or badly wounded thousands of Americans over an extended period of time, and was plotting to kill many more...but got caught! He was directly and indirectly responsible for the death of millions of people, including the recent large number....

 

....of PROTESTERS killed in Iran itself. While Iran will never be able to properly admit it, Soleimani was both hated and feared within the country. They are not nearly as saddened as the leaders will let the outside world believe. He should have been taken out many years ago!

 

First, a minor note, but one that goes to the heart of how Trump communicates. How he came up with the idea that General Soleimani was “responsible for the death of millions of people,” no one can know.

 

And, as always, in this tweet, we learn that the problems Trump faced were created by his predecessors, not by decisions of his own. Gen. Soleimani “should have been taken out years ago.” 

Trump decided to issue more threats. On January 4, he warned that the U.S. military had already: 

....targeted 52 Iranian sites (representing the 52 American hostages taken by Iran many years ago), some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture, and those targets, and Iran itself, WILL BE HIT VERY FAST AND VERY HARD. The USA wants no more threats!

 

They attacked us, & we hit back. If they attack again, which I would strongly advise them not to do, we will hit them harder than they have ever been hit before!

 

At this point, Trump was barking out his ass. By treaty, the nations of the world have agreed that attacks on cultural sites are war crimes.

 

Secretary of Defense Esper had no choice but to come out and tell reporters that the U.S. would carry out only lawful attacks. 

Next, Secretary of State Pompeo showed up on TV and said Trump wasn’t going to order airstrikes on cultural targets even though the president said he would. Pompeo insisted that the real threat to Persian culture came from the ayatollahs in charge – which was partly true. He did not care to explain how Trump’s threat to blow Persian culture to bits might appeal to the average Iranian in the street.

 

 

Stupidity, the essence of the Trump presidency. 

Last, but not least, on January 5, we had Trump at his most clueless, talking about war as if he were playing a video game. 

Here we have pure stupidity, the essence of the Trump presidency, boiled down in one tweet: 

The United States just spent Two Trillion Dollars on Military Equipment. We are the biggest and by far the BEST in the World! If Iran attacks an American Base, or any American, we will be sending some of that brand new beautiful equipment their way...and without hesitation!

 

No war has ever been fought by “beautiful equipment.” And Trump was blithely talking about killing and maiming human beings. 

How many Iranians might die, there was no way of knowing. 

Other human beings, Americans, would carry the burden of the fight. They too could be killed and maimed. You might have thought the President of the United States would take this matter more seriously.

 

Within hours of that vacuous tweet, militant Islamist forces attacked a U.S. base in Kenya. One U.S. soldier, 23-year-old Henry “Mitch” Mayfield Jr., and two Department of Defense contractors were killed. U.S. commanders said the attack by the al-Shabaab terrorist group, a first in Kenya, involved “indirect and small arms fire.” Six contractor-operated, civilian aircraft were damaged. 

“My son was a great man and we love him and we’re going to miss him,” his father Henry Mayfield, told an ABC reporter the next day. 

That’s not “beautiful equipment,” by the way.