October 11, 2020: Polls Show Democrats and Biden in the Lead

 

10/11/20: What new and wacky developments are there in Trumpistan? First, a bit of good news. Sunday, another poll showed Joe Biden beating Donald Trump, nationally, in November, by 12 points.

 

An average of all polls shows Biden with a +9.8 lead.

 

At present, Biden is +3.7 in Florida, but one +11 poll looks to be an outlier. If Trump loses the state on Election Day, he’s cooked.

 

Biden can lose Florida, and win Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which Hillary lost, and stroll into the Oval Office in January 2021. (Assuming, Secret Service agents have managed to drag Trump out.) In an average of all polls, Biden stands at +7.1 in Pennsylvania, +6.7 in Michigan, and +5.5 in Wisconsin. Trump’s chances in North Carolina are better; but Biden is at +1.4. The race is tight in a sixth battleground state, with Biden at +2.7 in Arizona.

 

Minnesota was once thought to be up for grabs if Trump ran a good race. Biden has a +9.4 lead.

 

Trump is also in danger of losing Iowa (Biden +1.2). Ohio is also nail-bitingly close, with only 22 days till the election. Biden is +0.6. Nevada may represent Trump’s best chance to take a state Hillary Clinton won in 2016; but even there, Biden is at +6. Texas should be safe for Trump, where he stands +4.4. But in Georgia, which he also has to win, his lead is a mere +0.4.

 

Several states considered “battlegrounds” in 2016, appear irrevocably lost to Mr. Trump. New Hampshire, which went narrowly for Clinton four years ago (+0.3), seems likely to go to Biden with ease, where he is +9 points. In Virginia Biden is +11. Maine is even worse, assuming you like the incumbent, with Trump standing at -12.8 in an average of all polls. Since Maine divides electoral votes, he still has a chance to pick up one. New Mexico seems solid for Biden, at +14.5.

 

RealClear Politics has only a single poll, and an old one, listed for Colorado, a battleground in 2016.

 

Biden is +10.

 

So, I do a little more checking.

 

The website FiveThirtyEight has even more polls; and they paint a similar picture. I check Colorado first, to see if there are more results, and there are. In Colorado, FiveThirtyEight (named for the total number of electoral votes available in any presidential election), Biden is +12.

 

Florida:                       Biden +4.5.

Pennsylvania:             Biden +7.3.

Michigan:                   Biden +8.

Wisconsin:                 Biden +7.2.

North Carolina:         Biden +2.9.

Arizona:                      Biden +3.9.

Minnesota:                 Biden +9.2.

Iowa:                          Biden +1.

Ohio:                          Biden +0.7.

Nevada:                      Biden +6.8.

Texas:                         Trump +1.5.

Georgia:                     Biden +0.9.

New Hampshire:       Biden +10.8.

Virginia:                     Biden +12.7.

Maine:                        Biden +15.2.

New Mexico:             Biden +14.

 

 

The news for Republicans is bad across nearly the entire board. FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a +10.4 lead. In the “Generic Ballot,” meaning which party voters want to control Congress, Democrats are at +6.9 in an average of all October surveys.

 

FiveThirtyEight also provides a ray of hope for Trump in Maine’s Second Congressional District, which he won in 2016. Since Maine divides electoral votes, he could pick up one here; but Biden still leads, narrowly, by +1.2. Biden also seems likely to steal one vote in Nebraska, where he leads in the Second Congressional District by +7.4. In fact, while only one poll has been done in Nebraska’s First Congressional District, where Trump was up only +2 in July, you had to wonder if Trump could lose even there. Two recent polls, however, seem to show Trump with an insurmountable lead in the Cornhusker State, at +15.5.

 

If you are a Trump fan, you may have heard your Orange God screaming about stolen votes in California four years ago and again in this run for reelection. Frankly, his only hope of winning the Golden State would be if it burned to the ground. He has often accused California Democrats of rigging the vote. No need to bother. Biden is favored to win 62.2% of the vote vs. 30.9% for the president.

 

(This jovial blogger has just as much chance of winning California as Mr. Trump does; and he’s not even running.)

 

Finally, if you hope to see Senate Majority Leader “Milksop” Mitch McConnell relegated to the trash heap of history, there’s hope. He’s not likely to lose his seat; but the GOP majority is teetering. Sara Gideon is +3.7 points in her race against incumbent Susan Collins. Cal Cunningham has a 5.2 point lead over Thom Tillis; but he may have thrown his chance away, after a series of text messages reveal he has been cheating on his wife. Then again, cheating on all three of his wives never hurt Trump. Mark Kelly has a +6.5 lead in Arizona, over Martha McSally. John Hickenlooper seems to have a solid +8 lead over Cory Gardner. If all four of these Republican incumbents (Collins, Tillis, McSally, and Gardner) are knocked out, and Biden is elected, Milksop Mitch suddenly finds himself in the minority – by virtue of a vice president’s ability to break tie votes. If Tillis wins…well, Mitch could rule again.

 

We know one Democratic senator, Doug Jones, who won a special election in Alabama in 2018, is likely to lose his seat. So, assuming Tillis holds on, Democrats need to knock off another incumbent Republican to be safe. Tommy Tuberville currently leads Jones by at least 12 points.

 

The bad news for those who love the GOP? RealClear Politics has Sen. Joni Ernst losing to challenger Theresa Greenfield, who stands at +4.8 in an average of polls. Gary Peters, a Democratic incumbent seems relatively safe in Michigan, at +4.8, although his race had been thought a difficult one. Sen. Diane Feinstein has a double-digit lead in California, even though at 87 years of age, she should probably step down rather than seek another six-year term.

 

Most senators up for reelection are popular in their states and almost certainly safe. But Republicans have several seats they might have to worry about. David Perdue may hold off Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff in Georgia, but polls appear to be tightening, with Perdue up 2.8 points. Rev. Raphael Warnock, another Georgia Democrat, is involved in a special election. He hopes to unhorse Kelly Loeffler, Georgia’s other GOP senator. Loeffler was appointed to fill a seat left open by illness, but has generally managed to make herself unpopular. Warnock must finish first or second in a divided field, with two Republicans vying for the seat, including Rep. Doug Collins, a man who has been an attack dog for Trump. Currently, Warnock sits in a solid first place; but unless he wins at least 50% of the vote, he’d face a runoff election later this year. For now he sits at +6.2 over his nearest rival.

 

Sparse polling in Alaska, since September, has the Republican, Dan Sullivan up 2.5 points over challenger Al Gross.

 

Barbara Bollier, a Kansas Democrat, seems to be making a run in a race against Republican Roger Marshall. One recent poll has her holding a +3.5 point lead. A second shows Marshall up +4. Kansas generally votes Republican, and not many people are ready to bet the sunflower patch on a Bollier win.

Kansas: The Sunflower State will go red.

 

Steve Bullock, former governor of Montana, appears to have a chance to take a senate seat away from the GOP, but his poll numbers are weakening. The Republican candidate, Steve Daines, will likely hang on for a win. His lead is +2.7.

 

In the most surprising development, what once seemed a safe seat for Sen. Lindsey Graham in South Carolina, is looking far from safe. All eight surveys taken in September or October show a tight race. When averaged, Graham is up +0.1 point over Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison.

 

So, to sum up: Democrats have good leads in five races against Republican incumbents (Collins, McSally, Gardner, Tillis, and Ernst) If they win four seats and hold all of their own, they take the Senate. If one of those five Republicans holds on to win, and Doug Jones loses, Democrats still take the gavel from Milksop Mitch. If Tillis and Collins, or Tillis and Ernst hold on, and Jones loses – and Biden wins – Democrats still win the Senate, because a 50-50 split would mean VP Kamala Harris would break tie votes. (This paragraph even confuses Mr. Blogger; but it’s correct.)

 

Republicans have a chance to unseat Sen. Peters in Michigan, but not a particularly strong one.

 

Democrats have a chance to knock off incumbent Sen. Graham and possibly defeat Marshall and Daines.

 

As far as Republicans recapturing the U.S. House of Representatives, this hard-working blogger would put their chances at zero.