November 6, 2018: Trump Says the Polls Are Wrong - Red Wave Coming (Get Your Swim Trunks On!)

 

Trump's prediction.

11/6/18: Election Day! The president has predicted that a red wave is coming. Trump fans, too, have been duped by right-wing “Real News,” and believe all the polls are wrong. President Twitter Thumbs insists to all who will listen that the American people still love him without stint. 

The average of all polls today shows Trump with an approval rating of: 

42.9 percent.

 

Now, with the election at hand, President Twitter Thumbs is complaining again about the media and the polls. He says a CNN poll just out, showing Democrats leading in most congressional races is a “Fake Suppression Poll.” His fans should “watch for real results Tuesday.” 

So, how do pollsters fare by the time the voters finish up casting their ballots? Rasmussen, the president’s favorite poll, had shown Republicans with a 1-point lead among voters in congressional races. CNN had the Democrats up 13. The polls, on average, gave Democrats a 7.3 point advantage. 

In an average of pre-election simulations Democrats are favored to take 27 seats from Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives.

 

When it comes to control of the U.S. Senate the map is more favorable for Team Trump and the average of all polls, the night before the election, shows Republicans picking up one seat for sure, in North Dakota. 

The following Senate races are rated as “toss-ups:” Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Tennessee, and West Virginia. 

Finally, voters turn out, but way more than normal, thirty million more than voted in the last midterm election. Despite this, the polls turn out to be quite accurate. The Democrats lose the Senate seat in North Dakota, as predicted. Indiana, Missouri and Tennessee go Republican, meaning Republicans knock off three Democratic senators and keep a grip in Tennessee. Democrats hold West Virginia and Montana. They also knock off a GOP incumbent in Nevada. 

Florida remains “undecided” as Americans, voters, and non-voters alike, head off to bed. So does Arizona.

 

BLOGGER’S NOTE (11/28/18): Overall, Democrats outpoll Republicans by 8.6 million votes in the combined House races, or 7.9 percent, meaning poll averages were right on target. Rasmussen, the only poll Trump ever likes, ends up off by 8.9 points. CNN, the poll he hates, is off by 5.1. And, if anything, the polls were off, in favor of Republicans. They lose at least 39 seats in the House.