Are Polls really "Rigged" if You Don't like the Numbers?

I’m a political junkie, of sorts. And that means I check polls with a religious fervor. You can’t be sure polls are totally accurate, of course.

Think: Hillary Clinton, our next president.

But the polls are, within limits, surprisingly accurate. President Barack Obama took office in January 2009, amid high hopes and expectations. The economy was tanking but the American people prayed he might save us. On February 16, 2009 his approval rating stood at 65.5%, his disapproval rating at 25.5%.

He was +40 in the polls.

As late as August 2, his numbers were solid: 54.1% approval, 39% disapproval. (We can assume that latter number included Donald J. Trump.)

As you may recall, the economy recovered slowly and Obama shouldered much of the blame. Two years later, his approval rating had dropped to 44% and his disapproval rating had risen to 52%. His all-time low came on December 1, 2013, when his approval rating had shriveled to 40.1% and his disapproval rating was 55.6%. 

From May 2013 till March 2016, his approval ratings were never as high as his disapproval ratings again.

Naturally, that weakness made governing hard—especially with a fractious, GOP-controlled Congress working to block his every move.

Obama’s only consolation, for what it was worth, was that Congress had an approval rating more dismal by far.

How dismal? From January 2009 to August 2017, not once has Congress had a favorable/ unfavorable rating in positive territory. For almost six years, from April 2011 until this past January, Congress had an unfavorable rating of at least 70%. That number dropped briefly this past spring. In the wake of the healthcare debacle unfavorable ratings for the legislative branch again top 70%. See below:

In other words, the polls have generally been accurate in reflecting changing national moods. For Trump supporters, that must be a sobering truth. At the lowest point, during two terms in office, Obama was “underwater” by only 15.5 points.

(All numbers are available at RealClear Politics if you’d like to check.)

That’s why, if you approve of President Trump, or you’re a Republican, who thinks your party knows best, you have to be deeply worried at present. 

Sure. You can fall back on outright denial.

You can tell yourself, as the President does, that the polls are “rigged.” But if the polls aren’t always predictive, and one must recognize there is a margin of error, the numbers now are exceedingly grim.

Let’s start with a poll by Rasmussen. Generally, Rasmussen’s numbers run a little more favorably for Republicans than other polls. Rasmussen, for example, always has a 100% response. Everyone polled either says they “approve” or “disapprove” of a president. There are no undecideds.

In the first days of the Trump Administration, polls were generally mixed. But Rasmussen recorded his best numbers ever—on January 24, 2017, when Trump had a favorable rating of 57%, an unfavorable rating of only 43%. Twice, on January 31 and again on February 14, Rasmussen still had President Trump in positive territory, 53%-47%. In late March a Reuters/IPSOS poll had the new president tied in the polls, 47% approval, 47% saying the reverse.

Since then there have been more than a hundred national polls and Trump has found himself in negative territory every time. Again, varying polls produce varying results. But current numbers are daunting, if you love Trump. The latest Rasmussen poll, on August 1, has Trump down 38%-62%. At -24, he finds himself in territory Obama never plumbed. And you can’t argue that the Rasmussen poll is “rigged.” Rasmussen’s numbers back in January were the best Trump has so far received. Even worse, if you’re Ivanka or Jared or Don Jr., or maybe Vladimir Putin, the President appears to be sinking fast.

Quinnipiac has numbers out this week that put Mr. Trump down by 28 points, with only 33% of Americans approving of the job he is doing and 61% saying they disapprove. See below:

If you love Trump, there’s little solace to be found; but you might take comfort in knowing that Barack Obama recovered in the end. By the time he left office on January 20, 2017, his approval rating had risen to 57.2%.

Only 39.3% of Americans disapproved of the job he had done.

Having said all that, right now, Donald J. Trump appears to be in serious trouble. With his highly abrasive style, a style unlikely to wear well with the American people over time, he may have serious trouble recovering.

Those of us who consider him a menace to American democracy can take some comfort in that thought.

Trump and the GOP Make the Case for Democrats in 2018 and 2020

If you set out to convince people to return power control of Congress to the Democrats in 2018, and the White House two years later, what would be the most effective way to accomplish it?

It could be, all you need to do is focus on the incompetence of Donald Trump and the most ineffective, GOP-controlled Congress in history.

Polls (see below) show that might be all you need.

If the election were held today, the GOP would be in well-earned and deep trouble.

But we can help speed the process if we approach the situation carefully. We can run strictly honest candidates in 2018 and 2020. 

That would be a start.

Also—Democrats could address the needs of older, white working class voters, especially men, who have seen their economic standing erode. We should keep championing the concerns of darker-skinned citizens, as well as women, and law-abiding immigrants, even undocumented ones. But we should be sympathetic to the financial concerns of many Trump supporters, realizing they are valid.

(We are liberals: we want to help the down-trodden.) 

You would also want to make a powerful case that it isn’t government that has screwed the average white, working-class man and woman. It was giant corporations that shipped millions of good jobs to low-wage nations. It wasn’t President Obama who forced those greedy companies to start operating in Vietnam, China and Sri Lanka.

Muslim Americans didn’t do it.

Mexican immigrants, legal or otherwise, weren’t responsible.

The CEO’s of corporations did it—and did it because CEO’s don’t bleed red, white and blue. They bleed green.

To the degree that President Trump has talked about bringing jobs back to America, his case resonates with many of our fellow citizens. The problem—and here, I am ignoring the fact that on many topics Trump sounds nuts—is that he represents a political party that has worked diligently to break fiscal back of the average worker. Expecting the GOP to push for policies that aid the working stiff is like expecting the Tooth Fairy to show up when you have impacted wisdom teeth, perform surgery, and leave $1,000 under your pillow.

It’s not going to happen.

At no point since the GOP took complete control of Congress has the approval rate of that august body reached 30%.

It would help if Democrats could make clear how little regard the ordinary GOP lawmaker has for the ordinary American worker. Consider the virulent Republican hatred for labor unions. Perhaps you’re too young to remember. But there was a time when no non-union worker dared pick up a shovel or swing a hammer on any unionized job site. (As a bonus, that meant no undocumented worker plucked off the street would have a chance to take a good American job; and, again, I do not mean to disparage those who come here from other countries in search of a better life). And why does the GOP loathe unions? For all their imperfections, unions exist to fight for higher wages and improved fringe benefits.

If you go back to the 1980s, Republicans were happy to argue that business leaders had every right to move jobs from Ohio and Michigan, where wages were “too high” and pensions “too good,” to states like Texas and Tennessee. There workers would expect less and there would be no unions to demand more.

Then the GOP used the same argument, and made it with increasing fervor, starting in the late 90s. If Apple or Ford or Caterpillar wanted to ship jobs overseas, well, that’s how the system is intended to work. The first, last and only imperative of a company is to make as much money as possible.

Republican policies were designed to facilitate that process, not to help the average worker. Tax shelters overseas, where giant companies could hide cash? Good idea! Special tax rates for hedge fund managers and Goldman Sachs banking executives? Just as Jesus intended! Tax cuts for billionaires? Just what the Koch brothers ordered! Raise the minimum wage, which would have a ripple effect for workers at the lower end of the spectrum, even those not directly covered? Can’t do it! That would cripple the U.S. economy! I once listened to a conservative friend insist if Congress raised the minimum wage a McDonald’s hamburger would suddenly cost $5.00. I said I was pretty sure his math was suspect, and he stalked away, muttering darkly that he was going home to turn on Fox News.

Now, is it okay if the typical CEO earns 300 times as much as the average worker? Does that raise the price of the hamburger? Not at all. According to the GOP, that’s why capitalism was invented.

In the same way, Democrats would be wise to point out that Republicans have been playing political “rope-a-dope” with their base supporters. While offering tax cut crumbs, and secretly smiling as hourly wages for those supporters declined, the GOP warned darkly that if Democrats regained control:

1. Gay marriages would ruin marriage for straight people. This was kind of like insisting: If your gay neighbors painted their house pink your formerly straight children would all come marching out of the closet.

2. Granny, kicking and screaming, would be carted away in a sinister black van, if Obamacare was enacted. There would be “death panels!”

GOP ineptitude has even convinced a majority of Americans the Affordable Care Act is good.

3. Speaking of “death,” Democrats would insist on innocent middle class Americans paying a “death tax.” I.R.S agents dressed like the Grim Reaper would show up at Granny’s funeral (see above). Granny would have to pay a huge tax on all assets, house, car and savings. Okay, don’t mention the fact the estate tax applies only to individuals who leave behind $5.5 million and couples that leave twice as much.

4. Also, if Democrats gain control, Muslims will enforce Sharia law in every village and town and every cornfield in Iowa. Even Mormons and Amish women will have to wear face coverings and long black robes.

5. If Muslim Obama (see above) was elected—and especially reelected—good citizens would immediately be required to give up all their guns. Even Nerf guns would be banned! And when Muslim Obama didn’t take away a single gun during his first term, or his second, well, it was a ruse, because Hillary was lurking in the wings ready to seize all the guns Obama was going to seize only didn’t. Meanwhile, worried Americans, their right to bear arms under terrible attack, ran out and bought another 150 million weapons, and gun-makers raked in the cash and happily raised CEO pay.

6. If Democrats ran Congress, we as a nation would lose the “War on Christmas.” We would suffer a catastrophic defeat in the “War on Coal” and even the “War on Ear Wax.”  After the government disposed of granny, your Christmas tree would get it too. And: no coal for the kids’ stockings!

7. Indeed, “tree huggers” would come to your house and take away your tree and trample all your ornaments; because they’re commies who believe in science and actually read NASA studies and think the earth is heating up in unnatural fashion. But the CEO’s of Big Oil companies and Big Coal know what’s best for all of us, and who are you going to trust? Scientists, or, say, guys who run Big Pharma?

The question, then, is how does our side counteract all the fear-mongering and make a case to vote “Democrat” in 2018 and 2020?

A little respect for the principles and beliefs, the valid fears and concerns of most Trump voters wouldn’t hurt.

And it might not be a bad idea to quote that great Republican president, a bit of a “tree hugger,” himself, Theodore Roosevelt:

The true welfare of the nation is indissolubly bound up with the welfare of the farmer and the wage-worker—of the man who tills the soil, and of the mechanic, the handicraftsman, the laborer. If we can insure the prosperity of these two classes we need not trouble ourselves about the prosperity of the rest, for that will follow as a matter of course.

  

Or, you might just enjoy the show as President Trump, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell bumble every issue and make a hash of the democratic process.

That clearly works, too.

Asked to choose: more Americans today would like to see the Democrats regain control of the legislative branch.