May 14, 2020: U.S. Economy Clobbered by Coronavirus Spread

 

5/14/20: If it isn’t bad enough that Americans are drinking bleach because the president said it might work (see: 5/12/20), the nation has massive economic damage it must overcome. On May 14 we learned that another 2,981,000 Americans filed for unemployment. 

 

A permanent loss of as many as 7,292,800 jobs. 

In just eight weeks, 36,464,000 men and women have been laid off from work. The good news (if any) is that in one recent poll 80% said they expected to be called back as the economy reopens. The bad news? Twenty percent of 36,464,000 not getting called back would mean a permanent loss of 7,292,800 jobs. Even those whose jobs are safe may have lost income. Many have accepted salary cuts. Hours have been curtailed. Business has been lost. Officially, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised numbers for March, indicating that 870,000 jobs had been cut. That meant March 2020 was worse than the worst months during the Great Recession. Then came April and 20,500,000 jobs were knocked out. 

We’re off to a rugged start in May, as well.

Not all rocket ships actually launch.

 

The president has been busy predicting that the U.S. economy will come roaring back – will soar like “a rocket ship” later this year. That appears increasingly unlikely. Fed chairman Jay Powell warned Wednesday that there could be “lasting” damage as a result of the outbreak and we could be in for a lengthy recession. 

The danger signs are many: 

BMW said it expects the auto industry to be held back “for quite some time to come.” 

Rail traffic in the U.S. declined 22.1% in the week ending May 9. 

Jobs in the clean energy field are down 17% since the start of the pandemic, with 594,300 workers idled. That despite the fact that this year renewables are expected to surpass coal for the first time in percentage of electricity generated in the United States. 

Battered by a near-total shutdown of air travel, United Airlines told workers they should consider “voluntary separation” from the company, as United prepares to “right-size” its workforce. 

AirBnB has seen its rental business implode. Executive salaries have been halved. The company will cancel $800 million in advertising for this year. Add that dent to the economy.

 

A study warns that as many as 100,000 small businesses in this country may have closed for good. 

White collar jobs are also being flushed down the toilet, many of them likely for good. Hyatt Hotels announced it was restructuring and would cut 1,300 corporate employees. 

States battered by falling tax revenues may have to lay off 275,000 teachers, adding another dent to a battered U.S. economy. Police and firefighters are likely to feel the axe too. 

Another grim warning: half of college graduates may finish schooling just in time to end up unemployed. 

Major League baseball is talking about an 82-game schedule, starting in July, without fans in stadiums. Everyone involved will have to take salary cuts to make the system work. 

Maersk, which handles one-fifth of all cargo shipped by sea, predicts a global decrease in the second quarter of 20-25%.

 

Indicative of how deep the damage has been, 1.4 million healthcare workers lost jobs in April, which would seem impossible right now. The American Hospital Association says member institutions have lost $200 billion as elective surgical procedures have been delayed. Primary care physicians are reporting huge losses. Patients are staying home rather than go to a doctor’s office with sore throats or for annual checkups, fearful they could end up in waiting rooms, seated next to someone infected with COVID-19. 

Millions of other Americans have lost both jobs and health insurance. They won’t go to the doctor unless a foot falls off or they get run over by a tractor.

February 5, 2021: Trump Creates Zero Jobs During Four Years in White House

 

2/5/21: The jobs report for January 2021 was released today. Even if we credit Trump with every job added for the month, he goes out not with a bang, or even a whimper, but a moan.

 

Jobs added under President Trump:

 

2017:   1,978,000 (February-December)

2018:   2,318,000

2019:   2,011,000

2020:      604,000 (January-February)

2021:      233,000 (January)

 

Total:  6,911,000 jobs added, counting all the good months of his first and only term in office.

 

Then we count the jobs lost as the coronavirus (which Trump said was only a flu) spread health and hiring havoc: 

March-April (2020)   -22,362,000 jobs. 

Then we count jobs recovered as businesses began to reopen and the pandemic seemed to die down (May-November of last year): 

+12,648,000. 

Then we subtract jobs lost in December 2020: - 306,000. 

Finally, we give him credit for all of January 2021, even though Joe Biden took over on January 20. 

January 2021:  233,000 jobs added.

 

Then we tally up the jobs added during Reject-President Trump’s watch comes out to …WTF… a negative number. 

Barring slight revisions for his last two months in charge, he created: 

- 2,876,000 jobs.

 

That’s right, Trump fans. No jobs gained in four years, despite a boom for impeachment defense lawyers. 

The unemployment rate ticks downward in January 2021 to 6.3 percent, or 1.6 points higher than when Obama left office. 

The Labor Participation Rate fell to its lowest point ever, at 61.4 percent, again, lower by 1.4 points than on the day Trump took the oath of office (which he promptly started to ignore). According to one estimate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics more than 4,000,000 Americans dropped out of the labor force during 2020. 

Last, but not least, if you are a coal miner, Trump’s brilliant leadership in the imaginary “War on Coal” saw employment in the coal mines drop from 50,900 to 42,400 to start President Biden off. 

A grim picture, overall.

Can You Pass This Test on Trump and His Job Numbers?

TODAY, TRUMP FANS and Trump mockers, since we can’t agree on Judge Kavanaugh’s fitness for a seat on the U.S. Supreme Court, let’s see if we can agree on something concrete.

I mean: math.

According to the website that has this for sale it's a pro-Kavanaugh shirt.
I'm not sure I agree.

Let’s imagine that sometime back, a president claimed that 94,000,000 Americans were desperate for jobs. And, now that he had taken office, he was going to fix that problem and quick. 

Question #1: Which of the following was it?

A)   Franklin D. Roosevelt

B)    Millard Fillmore

C)   Barrack Obama

D)   Donald J. Trump

(Admit it: You probably didn’t even know Fillmore was President of the United States back in 1850.)

In any case, the correct answer is: “D.”

Yes, in March 2017, Trump claimed that 94 million Americans were out of work, a figure he also cited while running for office. If you believed that figure then, or believe it now, you are probably a hopeless nincompoop and should stop taking this test and seek immediate medical assistance.

Sean Hannity did believe it, which makes you wonder if some Russian agent might have sneaked into his studio and left behind radioactive hair gel—and no one noticed even though it is increasingly clear something has damaged Sean’s brain.

*

MOVING ON, as I said, I like math. So, for the numbers that follow, I consult the Bureau of Labor Statistics, where I like to go for what we liberals call “facts.”

Now, back to the test!

 Question 2: If Donald J. Trump and Fox News claim in March 2017 that 94 million Americans are looking for work and Bureau of Labor Statistics show that roughly 4 million jobs have been added to the U.S. economy since, then at least 90 million Americans must still be looking for work?

A)   True

B)    False

I don’t make up the math, Trump fans, I just do the math. “A” is correct!

Question #3 requires background. When monthly job numbers under Obama kept coming in good, Candidate Trump said the numbers were “phony” and “rigged.” Even sensbible conservatives agreed and liked to point out that the labor participation rate had plunged under Mr. Obama. 

According to right-wing nuts, a different category of conservatives, it was all Obama’s commie-Kenyan-terrorist-paling-around-with-fault.

Naturally, now that the numbers are no longer rigged and Trump is adding jobs at what he insists is a feverish pace, which number, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, represents the lower labor participation rate?

A)   January 2014: 62.9 percent

B)    January 2015: 62.9 percent

C)   January 2016: 62.8 percent

D)   January 2017: 62.9 percent

E)    January 2018: 62.7 percent

F)    September 2018: 62.7 percent

Yes, “E” and “F” are correct! 

This does not mean President Trump is doing a terrible job on employment. He is not. In fact, he and his aides are hiring up lawyers at a fearful pace!

It does mean that Trump and an alarming number of conservatives and all the right-wing nuts were full of crap when they faulted Obama for the decline in the rate.

(In fact, most of the decline from 66.2 percent in January 2009 had to do with roughly 10,000 baby boomers retiring every day.)

OKAY, HERE IS AN EASY ONE. Sharpen your pencils and write down the proper letter on your paper.

Question Four: If the Bureau of Labor Statistics cites job losses (in red) and gains for the thirteen months up to and including the month they took office, which president inherited the real mess?

A)   +103,000, +257,000, +235,000, +174,000, +34,000, +285,000, +325,000,  +175,000, +264,000, +140,000, +172,000, +180,000, +259,000 (Trump). 

B)    +8,000, -81,000, -55,000, -229,000, -184,000, -154,000, -213,000, -277,000, -443,000, -475,000, -759,000, -707,000 and -787,000 (Obama).

Clearly, even the numbest numbskull can see that the numbers for “B” are worse. If you are just taking office, you would prefer to “inherit” “A.”

So, if you marked “B,” good job Trump fans or Trump mockers. 

Now, a harder one—and you may mark as many as you like. 

Question 5: Which statements are true?

A)   President Obama inherited “B;” therefore he inherited a mess.

B)    President Trump inherited “A;” therefore he did not inherit a mess.

C)   President Trump likes to claim he inherited a mess; therefore all the jobs created from the moment he won election he gets the credit for; meaning he believes he possesses magical powers.

The math clearly shows: A and B are correct. If you marked only those two, you may count your answer right. 

President Trump and his fans have also claimed that he deserves credit for all job gains from the moment election results were final in November 2016, Hillary’s tears started to flow, and Vladimir began to party.

If you marked “C” give you get a bonus point. If you believed “C,” however, you are a Trump-loving, reality-challenged fan. 

Therefore, no extra point for you.

Last, but not least, here are graphs showing job gains for four periods of twenty months each. Together they cover the period from December 2011 to September 2018. (Two are slightly different in scale because at least one month of gains tops or touches 350,000 during two spans measured, which throws off the scale). 

GRAPH A.

GRAPH B.

GRAPH C.

GRAPH D.

Now a series of questions:

Question #6: Which of these choices is correct?

A)   Graph A shows job gains under Obama in his last twenty months in office and Graph B show job gains under Trump in the twenty months since he took over.

B)    Graph B shows job gains under Obama in his last twenty months in officeand Graph A shows job numbers under Trump in the twenty months since he took over.

C)   Graph C shows job gains under Obama, Graph D under Trump.

D)   Graph B shows job gains under Obama, Graph C under Trump.

Choice B is correct. 

Question #7: If you total the jobs added on graphs A and B which president added move jobs total during the periods (leaving out January 2017 figures, which were split for the two men) above?

A)   President Trump

B)    President Obama

Yes, Obama  did! B.

Question Eight (True or False): All four graphs show that job gains during the 20-month periods highlighted were solid and good and roughly equal.

Answer: “True.

Question Nine: President Trump promised, if elected, to reduce the deficit and, if reelected, in eight years to eliminate the national debt entirely. (This sounded like magic; but still his fans believed him.)

The federal deficit for Fiscal Year 2016, under President Obama, was $585 billion. The deficit for Fiscal Year 2017 rose to $665 billion. (That fiscal year falls mostly under Obama.) The Congressional Budget Office now reports that the deficit for FY 2018, just ended, was $782 billion.

A)   The deficit is decreasing since Trump took over.

B)    The deficit is not changing.

C)   The deficit is increasing since Trump took over.

Yes, with Republicans in control of both houses of Congress and the President of the United States with veto pen in hand, if necessary, to bring down the deficit, “C” is correct. The deficit is increasing!

Bonus Question: What do you think the projected budget deficits for FY 2019 and 2020 are expected to be?

Answer: If you said anything close to “one trillion in added debt for each year,” give yourself a bonus point!

Question #10: If you believed Trump/GOP claims that President Obama was killing the U.S. economy, that Trump inherited a mess and that a giant tax cut for the wealthiest Americans was necessary to goose job growth, which of these statements are true?

A)   Monthly job gains have decreased slightly since Trump took office.

B)    The budget deficit has actually increased since the tax cuts were passed.

C)   Our children and grandchildren will be stuck paying the bills and all they will get is a lousy t-shirt bearing Brett Kavanaugh’s face.

Yes, A, B and C are all correct!

Score yourself honestly and if you have higher than a 7, consider yourself as having passed the reality check.