February 26, 2019: One Chance in a Million that Climate Change Is Not Human-Caused

 

2/26/19: The president is getting settled in Vietnam, in preparation for the summit with Kim Jong-un.

 

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Five-sigma level certainty on climate change.

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Meanwhile, scientists report that evidence for man-made global warming has reached a “gold standard” level of certainty. As Reuters explains, scientists, “said confidence that human activities were raising the heat at the Earth’s surface had reached a ‘five-sigma’ level, a statistical gauge meaning there is only a one-in-a-million chance that the signal would appear if there was no warming.” 

So, you can say, like Trump’s new pick for U.N. ambassador, that there is “good science” on both sides of the issue. You have one chance that human-caused climate change is not really occurring. 

And let’s burn more coal! (See: 2/23-24/19.)

 

Or you have 999,999 chances that human-caused climate change is occurring and talking about cow gas means you’re an ignoramus. See, for example: Sean Hannity’s show. Writing in the journal Nature, a U.S.-led team studying the matter warned, “Humanity cannot afford to ignore such clear signals.” 

Benjamin Santer, lead author of Monday’s study at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California, said he hoped the findings would win over skeptics and spur action.

 

“The narrative out there that scientists don’t know the cause of climate change is wrong,” he told Reuters. “We do.”

 

It might not be clear what must be done to address the threat, or what sacrifices will be required and by whom. Of this much, scientists are clear. Burning fossil fuels has led to more floods, more droughts, more heat waves, and rising sea levels. 

In this case, experts from the United States, Canada and Scotland studied satellite data in drawing up conclusions. 

For his part, President Trump serves up what precious little he knows in simplistic tweets.

 

In a July 2018 poll, 90 percent of Democrats (going with the 999,999 chances) said they believed there is solid evidence of global climate change. For Republicans (banking on the other chance), it was 50 percent. 

In fact, as recently as 2014, the United States led the world in climate deniers and led by a wide margin.

  

* 

SINCE OUR TOPIC TODAY is lack of understanding, let’s go with what clueless Presidential Assistant Ivanka Trump said during an interview today. 

Asked about her father’s plans for the next two years, she said dad was a genius, whereas Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was a nincompoop, and all wrong with her socialist, handouts-for-all plans for struggling Americans. 

(I am paraphrasing.) 

Referring to the congresswoman, who grew up in a middle class neighborhood in New York City, and worked as a bartender to pay bills after college, Ivanka explained, “I don’t think most Americans, in their heart, want to be given something. I’ve spent a lot of time traveling around this country over the last four years. People want to work for what they get.” 

Just as she did as the struggling daughter of a self-proclaimed billionaire – who then worked her way to the top, and landed a White House position by virtue of her DNA matching her father’s.

June 30, 2019: Trump Still Loves Kim Jong-Un

 

6/30/19: Picking apart any president’s diplomatic moves is easy, mainly because diplomacy rarely bears fruit. It’s often sour, even if does. U.S. presidents have been working on an “Israeli-Palestinian solution” since 1967. It’s no surprise if Jared Kushner can’t work out the bugs now. Neither could anyone else. 

So, President Trump’s decision to step across the DMZ into North Korea today could work out for the good or could prove a costly mistake. Talking is better than bombing, in almost every situation. 

On the other hand, Trump’s continued friendly relations with dictators should worry even the MAGA hat crowd. Kim Jong-un is one of the most brutal leaders in the world today. By visiting with him, shaking his hand, touting the “beautiful letters” Kim writes, and even tweet-complimenting him, Trump elevates his foe on the world stage. He makes Kim look better, even at home, where North Koreans have little reason to cheer. 

North Koreans must cheer, however, or they end up locked away in Kim Jong-un’s massive gulag. 

Or: Dead.

 

So, when reporters ask, would Trump invite Kim to the White House, you wish he might be circumspect. Circumspect, he is not. “I would invite him right now…to the White House,” Trump responds. 

In a complicated world, where anything can happen, it’s possible Trump’s decision to cross the DMZ will prove a clever move. 

 

The “Trump Appeasement Tour?” 

Or it may turn out to be akin to saying, in 1938, that you’d invite Hitler to the White House. For once, this blogger will quote a Democrat to make a point. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Oh.) labels Trump’s moves regarding North Korea, the “Trump Appeasement Tour.” That word choice is no coincidence. “Appeasement” was applied to Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, after he caved in the face of Hitler’s threats, in hopes of avoiding all-out war. 

On September 1, 1939, Chamberlain and the rest of the world learned that appeasing Hitler had been a huge mistake. 

There are plenty of other worrisome signs. The president was accompanied on his latest jaunt by such key “foreign policy experts,” as daughter Ivanka and “General” Tucker Carlson of Fox News. What tangible results Trump’s photo op will bring remain hidden in shadows. There are hints his administration may agree to a nuclear “freeze” of some as-yet-to-be-determined duration. This would allow talks on North Korean denuclearization to resume. Again, talking is generally better than bombing. But you never know what Trump might do. Even Trump doesn’t know, from moment to moment, what Trump might do. If you haven’t noticed, the pace of denuclearization hasn’t accelerated since Trump plumped his fat fanny down in the White House. 

And…now Iran has announced that it has breached the accord worked out under the Obama administration. 

It is enriching uranium again. 

So: Who does Trump bomb first? Iran, which might start work on its first nuclear weapon? 

Or North Korea, which already has an estimated 20-60 nuclear devices? More to the point, does the president have a clue? In August 2017, he threatened “fire and fury like the world has never seen” if North Korea didn’t give up its weapons. 

“Vague threats of nuclear war?” Foreign Policy magazine wondered at the time. 

Then Trump and Kim talked and “fell in love.” (Imagine FDR saying he “fell in love” with Hitler.)

 

More recently, Trump launched an attack on Iran, called it back again, yo-yo style, and said he didn’t want to kill 150 Iranians because they shot down an unarmed drone. Two days later he said he’d “obliterate” Iran if they didn’t watch out. “Vague threats of nuclear war?” Again? 

Finally, Trump claimed that Mr. Obama was “constantly begging” for a meeting with the North Korean dictator when he was in charge. “Begging,” is his way of making Obama sound weak. It’s a Trump quirk. He’s compelled to downgrade predecessors, raising his status by comparison. 

So far, in terms of nuclear diplomacy, Trump has less than nothing to show for all his bluster. 

 

Of course, Kim looked “really well and very healthy.” 

Speaking of “clueless,” on his return from North Korea, Trump tweets (have complex foreign policy issues ever been resolved in 280 characters or less?) out a “plan.” 

Tweet 1: “It was great being with Chairman Kim Jong Un of North Korea this weekend. We had a great meeting, he looked really well and very healthy - I look forward to seeing him again soon....” 

Of course, Kim look’s “really well and very healthy.” He’s a maniacal killer and can stuff his face with every delicacy in the world. His starving people dare not complain. Roughly four in ten are malnourished. Near-starvation levels have caused the stunted growth of one in five North Korean boys and girls. 

Tweet 2: “...In the meantime, our teams will be meeting to work on some solutions to very long term and persistent problems. No rush, but I am sure we will ultimately get there!” 

No rush? What is the timeline? What is the plan? Or is the plan to pretend the North Korean arsenal doesn’t exist, and claim “victory” again?

 

As we often say on this simple blog, diplomacy is a bitch. It’s a bitch for every president, but Trump is different. Every time he’s stymied, he blames his problems (“very long term and persistent”), even ones like the ones with Iran he created himself, on previous U.S. administrations. 

We also learn, via North Korean news media, that Ivanka Trump was included in the meeting with Chairman Kim. 

And we start to hear rumblings from foreign diplomats who are panning her performance at the G-20 meeting in Osaka. Once again, Ivanka shows up, oddly enough, alongside her father, in pictures of the world’s most powerful leaders. Commenting on First Daughter Ivanka’s qualifications for her role, a diplomat from India tells a reporter, “We regard Ivanka Trump the way we do half-wit Saudi princes [emphasis added]. It’s in our national interest to flatter them.” 

 

The French go out of their way to post a video showing an awkward moment when the First Daughter tries to join in conversation with world leaders – which seems to be a shot at Ivanka from a key U.S. ally:

 

Finally, Slate reports on Trump’s claim that President Obama was “begging” for a meeting with Kim. 

Ben Rhodes, who served as Obama’s deputy national security adviser took to Twitter to contradict Trump. “Trump is lying,” Rhodes wrote. “Obama never sought a meeting with Kim Jong Un. Foreign policy isn’t reality television it’s reality.”

 

Rhodes went on to call Trump’s foreign policy a “a failure,” adding that “photo ops don’t get rid of nuclear weapons, carefully negotiated agreements do.”

 

James Clapper, the former Director of National Intelligence, also dismissed the claim during a television interview Sunday. “I don’t know where he’s getting that,” Clapper said. “In all the deliberations that I participated in on North Korea during the Obama administration, I can recall no instance whatever where President Obama ever indicated any interest whatsoever in meeting with Chairman Kim. That’s news to me.”

June 1, 2020: Seeds of Dictatorship Seen in Lafayette Square

 

June 1, 2020: This may go down in history as the day Donald Trump destroyed his presidency.

 

BLOGGER’S NOTE (1/10/21): It didn’t. But the most authoritarian president in history finished himself off on January 6, 2021.

 

BLOGGER’S NOTE #2 (7/16/21): Okay, I was too optimistic in January 2021, too. Trump supporters shrugged off the Capitol Hill riot. And leaders of the Republican Party generally continued to kiss his posterior.

 

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Trump’s “Selma March,” in reverse.

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Black Lives Protests already convulse the nation. Hundreds of thousands are marching in the streets. There is looting, too, an unfortunate corollary of legitimate grievance throughout history. On Friday, May 29, protesters rattle barriers around the White House. A breach seems imminent. Secret Service agents move Trump, the First Lady, and son Barron, to a secure room beneath the Presidential Mansion. Some idiot tries to set fire to St. John’s Episcopal Church, within view of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Protesters in Lafayette Square, directly across from the White House, throw bricks and rocks at police. Chants of, “Fuck Trump,” fill the air. 

Donald Trump is rattled. 

The story leaks in the press about the First Family retreating to the bunker. The president fumes. It makes him sound weak. After stewing all weekend, on this Monday in June, he decides to act. 

Irresponsibly, of course.

 

* 

There has to be “retribution.” 

MONDAY AFTERNOON he takes a call with governors and mayors around the country. The New York Times acquires audio. At a time when a calming voice is needed, President Trump is agitated. What he wants to do is target and silence protesters. “You can’t do the deal where they get one week in jail,” he tells the others. “These are terrorists. These are terrorists…it shouldn’t be hard to take care of, and we’re going to take care of it.” His words are either promise or threat. 

“Terrorists.” 

Make note of what he calls American protesters.

 

Trump tells everyone on the other end of the line that Gen. Mark A. Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is listening on the White House end. Milley is “a fighter, a warrior, had a lot of victories, and no losses. And he hates to see the way it’s being handled, and the various things, and I just put him in charge.” This comes as a surprise to everyone, including Gen. Milley. 

In times of unrest, governors have power to call out the National Guard. If they need help they ask for federal assistance. 

None of the governors have. 

“We’re strongly looking for arrests, we do have to get much tougher,” Trump insists. “You have to dominate, if you don’t dominate, you’re wasting your time. They’re going to run over you, and you’ll look like a bunch of jerks. You have to dominate. You have to arrest people and try people, and they have to go to jail for long periods of time [emphasis added, unless otherwise noted]” If the President of the United States has ever heard of “due process,” it doesn’t show.

 

Trump seems to be watching TV during the call. He expresses shock at what happened in Dallas. He says protesters kicked a man to death. He admits he’s not sure the man is dead. His contempt is clear. “It’s coming from the radical left. You know it. Everybody knows it,” he barks. He sees film of a young black looter who carries a new TV out of a ruined store and puts it in the back of a car. “The harder you are, the tougher you are, the less likely it is you’re going to be hit,” the president explains. 

He blames the trouble on Antifa. He says it’s “like a movement. If you don’t put it down, it will get worse and worse. This is like Occupy Wall Street. It was a disaster, until one day somebody said, ‘That’s enough,’ and they just went in and wiped them out.” Trump’s anger has taken hold. He wants Americans wiped out. He says the Occupy folks weren’t worried about the law. They were camped out, “ordering pizzas.” Finally, police cleared out the protesters. It was “bedlam for an hour. And after that it was beautiful,” he says. “But these are the same people. They’re anarchists.”  

He ignores the fact protests have spread to hundreds of cities, towns, and neighborhoods across the nation.

 

He tells the mayors and governors, “I’m for everybody, I’m representing everybody. I’m not representing radical right, radical left, I’m representing everybody.” You can’t be weak, he says again, “but most of you are weak.” 

Mr. Trump makes clear his admiration for tactics being deployed by the National Guard, offering a play-by-play commentary. He’s excited to see protesters on TV, being knocked down “like bowling pins.” He sees a rioter throw a brick, winding up like a baseball player. Apparently, he watches a slow motion replay. These people have to get “five years, ten years” in jail, he growls. There has to be “retribution.” He promises, in D.C. “we’re going to do something that people haven’t seen before.” 

He’s hatching a plan.

 

* 

NOT LONG AFTER, the President marches out to the Rose Garden and addresses the nation. At this point, protesters in Lafayette Square are peaceful. The crowd is not friendly to the president, but these are citizens exercising First Amendment rights. Trump? Trump wants to sound tough. He promises to be the “law and order” president. More ominously, he threatens to use active duty troops to clear the nation’s streets, if governors and mayors “refuse” to do their jobs. 

He says he will do it quickly, and might invoke the Insurrection Act of 1807. Trump is later rumored to have asked about bringing in 10,000 U.S. soldiers to drive away the protesters from in front of the White House. 

Meanwhile a plan is being perfected – if you can say Team Trump ever perfects a plan. Someone (reportedly Ivanka) convinces the president to take a stroll. The president, or someone in his administration, orders law enforcement officers from an alphabet soup of federal agencies, bolstered by active duty military police, to drive the protesters from Lafayette Park. Shortly after 6:30 p.m., authorities begin firing tear gas, and using flash-bang devices and bludgeons to clear the area.

 

Once the air clears, Trump and an entourage of top aides emerge from the White House. Ivanka is there, sporting a protective black COVID-19 mask, and carrying a $1,500 designer handbag. Inside is a Bible. White House aide and son-in-law Jared Kushner is by her side. The usual assortment of bootlickers, including Press Secretary McEnany, flank the president. Unfortunately, Gen. Milley accompanies the “marchers.” So does Secretary of Defense Mark Esper. Both appear to give a military stamp of approval to the attack on peaceful protesters. 

Trump bravely walks a thousand feet – out the front door of the White House – across Pennsylvania Avenue – cutting through Lafayette Park – and crossing another boulevard – to stand in front of St. John’s Episcopal Church. There, he takes the Bible handed to him by First Daughter Ivanka. He hoists it over his head, glowers, and intones, “Greatest country in the world. And we’re going to keep it safe.” 

Trump poses in front of St.  Johns.

Having offered a dozen words of “inspiration,” he pivots on his heels (ignoring the pain he feels from his old bone spurs) and hoofs it back, another thousand feet, to his West Wing bunker. Then the president gets back to the business of dividing the country. Soon after completing his pathetic “Selma March” in reverse, he tweets out fresh insult. He calls the African American mayor of Washington D.C. “incompetent.” She is not fit, he says, to lead a great city.

 

* 

LIKE MOST AMERICANS, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser is aghast. The fact that Esper and Milley accompanied Trump, strikes her and many others as having watched the seeds of dictatorship being planted. “I imposed a curfew at 7 pm.,” Bowser explains. “A full 25 minutes before the curfew & w/o provocation, federal police used munitions on peaceful protestors in front of the White House.” 

This, she warns, will only antagonize demonstrators. It will make the job of D.C. police “more difficult.” “Shameful!” she calls the decision. “DC residents – Go home. Be safe,” she suggests. 

MAGA fans, of course, applaud the president’s stunt. 

 

POSTSCRIPT: Press Secretary McEnany announces that Trump’s appearance before St. Johns was a great moment for the American people. She compares Trump to Winston Churchill bucking up the spirits of Britons during the London Blitz in 1940. 

As Maureen Dowd writes, this is too much for most Americans to swallow. “We shall fight them on the golf courses,” she writes, quoting a friend. “We shall fight them on Twitter. We shall fight them at Mar-a-Lago.” 

In days to follow, more than two dozen former U.S. military leaders pillory the man in the White House. They make their concern clear. They label Trump a threat to the U.S. Constitution. 

(Due to their importance, their comments are collected under a separate post.)

August 28, 2020: President Trump Hates Climate Scientists, Former Advisors, and Relatives

 

8/28/20: The pandemic continues to rattle the economy. Fears grow that a second wave of layoffs may be coming. MGM Resorts plans to lay off 18,000 furloughed workers, a quarter of its U.S. workforce. American Airlines is letting 17,500 workers go. Another 4,000 workers at Booking.com will be cut in September. State and local governments have slashed payroll, eliminating 1.2 million jobs. Moody’s Analytics warns that falling tax receipts and rising costs for unemployment relief may force an even larger, additional round of cuts, as many as 2.8 million.

 

*

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“If our collective future were a movie, this week would be the trailer.” 

Camilo Mora, climate scientist

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AS AUGUST winds down, we find two storms brewing in the Atlantic, as another year of hotter waters make for ripe conditions for hurricanes. 

As for Trump, he continues to ignore climate change – when we’re lucky – and to denigrate the experts when we’re not. With California going up in smoke, Iowa recovering from freakish 100 mph straight-line winds, and the Gulf Coast smashed, evidence of trouble piles up. As NPR reports: 

Climate scientist Camilo Mora of the University of Hawaii says if our collective future were a movie, this week would be the trailer.

 

“There is not a single ending that is good,” he says. “There’s not going to be a happy ending to this movie.”

 

Welcome to a hotter world, humanity. It’s not going to be any fun.

 

* 

ALSO TAKING A HIT: Ivanka Trump. And that hit is delivered by her aunt, on her father’s side. The president’s sister, Judge Maryanne Trump Barry, had already been quoted saying her brother – Ivanka’s dad – has absolutely no principles. Now tapes surface in which she says, like father, like daughter. “She’s all about her,” the aunt says of Ivanka. “She’s a mini-Donald, but yet he’s besotted with her.” 

In a previous tape, she said of the president, “He has no principles. None. None. And his base, I mean my God, if you were a religious person, you want to help people. Not do this.” 

The president hits back at his niece, Mary Trump, whose taped conversations with Judge Barry, have ended up in her book, and now in public view. “Unstable,” he calls the author. He takes glee in saying she was “rightfully shunned, scorned and mocked her entire life” by the rest of the family. Because who doesn’t believe a person deserves to be mocked all their life!

Mary Trump, niece of the president, left.

 

While he’s at it, the President of the United States decides to trash his former National Security Advisor, John Bolton – a man he put in that position, and who held the post for seventeen months. 

Now, Trump says, he’s a “dumb warmonger.” And only a complete idiot would hire him for advice.