Explaining Election Math to MAGA Folks.

  

THIS PAST WEEK several of my MAGA friends were busy on social media, bashing Democrats and people like me. So, I tried, for the thousandth time, to explain why Democrats and people like think Donald Trump is nuts. 

One MAGA friend said his side never attacked Obama, and called him a Nazi, or compared him to Hitler. Our side, he fumed, was terrible, because we kept saying Trump had fascist tendencies. 

Frankly, I was stunned. I wanted to ask: “Where were you living from 2008 to 2016? In a cave in Tibet?” 

(Just Google: “Obama as Hitler,” click on “images,” and see what comes up.) 

  

Another friend (and in their hearts, these are good people, as far as I know) posted this last week: 

 

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FRANKLY, I hate memes. I prefer to dive into an ocean of evidence and see what I can find when I swim. So, I decided I had to try again. I’m not stupid. I know that, for sure. And I don’t want my MAGA friends to remain trapped in ignorance. That’s never good. Here’s what I know. Donald Trump didn’t win the 2020 election – which would mean he has been lying for five years – and that he was willing to overturn the results of a fair election to stay in power. That, of course, would be the very essence of fascism, or authoritarianism, if you prefer. 

How do I know Donald didn’t win? I will now explain why we on the Democratic side fear the man, using basic numbers. Also: Easily grasped facts. 

First, let’s look at a series of presidential elections. 

 

(2000) 

In a titanic contest between Sen. Al Gore and Gov. George W. Bush, the latter prevailed in the Electoral College but lost the popular vote. Pollsters had predicted a narrow win for Bush. 

Rounding off: 

Bush got 50.5 million votes. 

Gore had 51 million. 

Ralph Nader and his Green Party cost Sen. Gore the presidency, as they tallied 2.9 million votes. Gore was a dedicated environmentalist – like Mr. Nader – but the Greens took away more than enough votes to cost Gore the win in Florida. 

Another million votes were scattered across other minor parties but did not affect the outcome. 

If you don’t remember, the election turned entirely on who won Florida, with its then-25 electoral votes. Gore lost that state by 537 popular votes, out of six million cast. (You may also recall that the U.S. Supreme Court blocked a recount, voting 5-4, to accept Mr. Bush as winner.)

 

Melting ice in Greenland. c. 2020.
Gore was worried about climate change in 2000.

 

Total votes cast: 105,400,000. 

The U.S. population has grown by approximately 60 million since.

___ 

 

(2004) 

In 2004, Mr. Bush defeated Sen. John Kerry. Bush increased his vote to 62 million – a jump of almost ten million. 

Kerry increased the Democratic share of the vote to 59 million, a jump of eight million. Nader’s total vote fell to 500,000, and other parties piled up a million votes. 

(Remember those jumps when we get to 2020.) 

The polls (in aggregate) had correctly predicted a Bush win. Please note, my MAGA friends, a candidate can easily pile up many more votes, from one election to the next. It’s not some conspiracy. 

In just four years, voter turnout increased by more than seventeen million.

The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan appeared to be going well in 2004.

 

Total votes cast: 122,500,000.

___ 

 

(2008) 

In 2008 and again in 2012, Barack Obama won four-year terms in office; and if you check polling numbers (as I always do) you will see that they are, in aggregate, surprisingly accurate. He was expected to win both times. The 2012 contest, however, was close; I remember worrying that the polls were within the margin of error. 

In 2008, the vote was: 

Obama: 69.5 million votes. 

Sen. John McCain: only 59.9 million. 

Ralph Nader ran again, got 700,000 votes, and other candidates pulled down 1,100,000 votes, or thereabouts. 

Again, voter turnout increased dramatically. The winning candidate, Mr. Obama, increased his party’s vote by more than ten million. With the U.S. economy having slid into recession, Republican vote totals declined. 

This is how voters act.

One of my MAGA friends said recently that his side never trashed Obama.

 

Total votes cast: 131,200,000.

___ 

 

(2012) 

In 2012, we had a closer election, just as the aggregated average of the polls predicted. Individual polls can be off a great deal. Taken altogether, they have been correct, regarding the popular vote, in every election going back to 2004. 

Obama had 65.9 million votes (a drop of 3.6 million) 

Sen. Mitt Romney had 60.9 million. 

Another 2.3 million votes were scattered to other parties. 

The decline in the number of votes reflected disappointment with what Mr. Obama had been able to accomplish in his first term, coupled with reluctance to vote for Sen. Romney and his policies. Donald J. Trump famously insisted the vote was rigged and Obama’s victory was a “sham” and “a total travesty.” 

He also said we were no longer a democracy, and warned, “We can’t let this happen. We should march on Washington and stop this travesty. Our nation is totally divided!” It was kind of like when he said, in 2011, that Obama wasn’t born in this country, and so wasn’t a legitimate president. 

That was some serious lying, right there.

 

Total votes cast: 129,100,000.

 

FUN FACT: Since Barack Obama’s mother was a U.S. citizen, by law any child of hers would be a citizen, whether they were born on a plane over the Atlantic, during a vacation in Slovenia, or, hypothetically, on Mars. Citizenship follows the parent or parents, and only one parent need be a U.S. citizen. 

Donald Trump should have read the Constitution.

___ 

 

(2016) 

In 2016, Mr. Trump made his first appearance on the ballot. When he lost the Republican primary in Iowa, he warmed up by claiming Ted Cruz “stole” the election, and he, Donald, really won. 

Leading up to the general election, Donald also predicted, “The election is absolutely being rigged by the dishonest and distorted media pushing Crooked Hillary – but also at many polling places – SAD.” 

Yet, somehow, he won. 

(The MAGA folks miss the cosmic irony.)

(And the fundamentals of math.)

The National Enquirer, in cahoots with Trump, 
warned us not to vote for Mrs. Clinton.

 

Polls indicated a Clinton victory was likely, but after F.B.I. Director James Comey indicated an investigation was open regarding her emails, her polling advantage shriveled. On the eve of the election, it was expected she would win by about 3% of the total vote. She did win the popular vote, but by only 2.1%. 

Trump had 63 million votes. 

Clinton had 65.9 million. 

Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party accumulated 4.5 million votes (Two of the blogger’s children voted for Johnson; and a son-in-law voted for Trump). Jill Stein and the Green Party had 1.5 million votes – again doing nothing more than helping a candidate who was no friend to the environment to defeat one who was. Another two million votes were scattered. 

Trump claimed Democrats had rigged the vote, stealing millions in California – which only complete nincompoops would believe. The Democrats didn’t need to steal votes in that deep blue state. 

They could have taken Pennsylvania, by contrast, if they had used their magic powers to steal 45,000. 

Another 23,000 would have given Hillary Wisconsin, as well. These numbers are not hard to grasp. 

Finally, Michigan would have gone for Clinton, if only she had been able to garner 11,000 more votes. 

(Switching those three states, she would have won the electoral vote.) 

 

Trump did admit, a few days before the election that President Obama was born in America, which amused those of us who felt Trump would lie about any topic, including (as we later learned) sleeping with porn stars, if it was to his advantage. Of course, that’s just my opinion. 

The math, however? The math is so obvious that you would think even the dumbest person in America could figure it out. 

If Democrats had the magic power to steal millions of votes in one state, where they didn’t need any, why wouldn’t they use that magic to steal those thousands in the three states that cost them the win?

136,900,000 total votes cast.

___ 

 

(Midterm Elections – 2018) 

If you aren’t following the trend, the number of votes rises over time, and in some elections, totals rise dramatically, as in 2004. 

There were clear signs of what was to come in 2020, if one paid attention to what happened in the 2018 midterms. In 2018, pollsters were nearly unanimous in saying that Republicans were about to get shellacked. 

(Donald famously predicted a red wave – almost as if he were delusional.)

Trump's prediction.

 

In the end, voter turnout, as a percentage of eligible voters was the highest in a midterm election in at least four decades. Thirty million more people voted in 2018, compared to 2014. Everyone who understood politics and how to add and subtract knew voter turnout in 2020 would be huge. 

Democrats outpolled Republicans by 8.6 million votes, in all House races combined, as predicted. 

The GOP lost 39 House seats. 

(Republican leaders knew 2020 might be grim.)

___ 

 

Trump was never popular. 

It was always interesting to follow polls during Trump’s first term in office (which I did). At no point, during his first four years in the White House, did Donald’s approval rating rise above 50% in an aggregate of all polls. No other modern president has ever achieved that unenviable feat. 

Red, below is disapproval, black is approval. 

 

No one who could interpret simple polls should have been the least bit surprised when Donald lost in 2020.

___ 

 

(2020) 

On Election Day, November 3, Donald’s favorability rating stood at 45%, his unfavourability rating at 53.4%. RealClearPolitics, in an aggregate of all polls, had Biden ahead by 7.2 points. 

The final vote showed that the challenger had beaten Trump by 4.4 points.

Former Vice President Biden had 81.3 million votes. 

The incumbent had 74.2 million. (You knew he was going to start howling if he lost, and he did.) 

Roughly 3 million other votes went to third party candidates.

 

Total votes cast: 158,400,000.

___ 

 

Recounts and lies. 

The MAGA faithful refused to believe their Orange Hero had been defeated, either because they were obstinate, or numbers-challenged, or too deep in the cult, or ill-informed. Trump told them it was time to fight like hell, or they wouldn’t have a country anymore, and they believed. 

As in: “Hey, let’s attack Congress and stop the counting of the electoral votes.” 

Really, this is not difficult to puzzle out, my MAGA friends. Numerous Trump appointees in the Department of Justice, and in his own 2020 campaign told the president he lost – and there was no evidence of vote rigging. Look up Bill Stepien, Bill Barr, Jeffrey Rosen, Ken Block and don’t be lazy. 

I can name many more; but if you care about truth, start there. Block, for example, was paid $800,000 by the Trump campaign to find voter fraud. He came back with a report that he had found none. 

Recounts in both Arizona and Wisconsin, paid for by Team Trump, at a combined cost of $9 million, showed that voting hadn’t been rigged. Biden gained 361 votes in Arizona. In Wisconsin, he increased his tally by 132. 

That was fun. 

Then Trump tried to pressure Republican election officials in Georgia to “find” 11,780 votes, so he could “win” that state. They turned over a tape recording of the call to the free press. You can listen to that call yourself, if you want to learn a little about the 2020 election, and about Trump. 

And again, don’t be lazy. 

(I don’t think I have ever met a Trump supporter who has heard that call.) 

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, left, a Republican said the vote in his state wasn't rigged.
Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger took the call from Trump.
He told Trump repeatedly that he lost.

 

Trump kept squealing about how he was cheated, even saying he had won a “sacred landslide election,” which exactly zero polls had predicted. And he and his allies made all kinds of wild vote-stealing claims. In Georgia, a machine recount, and a hand recount of more than five million votes, showed Trump gaining 1,779, nowhere near the 11,780 votes he wanted officials to “find.” 

(That is: Steal.) 

 

Yet, that number, 1,779, is the biggest discrepancy, by far, found by any recount of votes of which this blogger is aware. 

You had to wonder where Donald expected Republican officials in Georgia to “find” all those votes he wanted them to find. What? Like loose change under the cushions? In fact, almost 800 of the votes he did gain in the recounts turned up in bright red Floyd County, where GOP officials had total control. They forgot to upload final results from two precincts. So that was funny, too, if you were a Biden supporter, and you knew Trump was a fat baby, who just couldn’t accept defeat.

But the baby was ready to destroy democracy – and that wasn’t funny. Trump made all kinds of wild claims about how he had been cheated, and he kept up howling, like a newborn with a dirty diaper, for weeks. None of his claims have ever been proven in court, not in five years. One of my favorites: Donald said he was robbed of 6,000 votes in Antrim County, a GOP stronghold in Michigan. This, he insisted, showed computers had been rigged. 

Republican election officials did a hand recount of 16,000 votes. Follow along, my MAGA friends. “One, two, three…” 

 Trump gained 12 votes. 

He was off in his claim by 5,988. 

He kept up the crying the entire time Biden was president. He howled so long and loud, that in Lycoming County, Pennsylvania, in 2023, Republican election officials, at substantial cost to taxpayers, carried out a hand recount of 59,000 votes from the 2020 contest. 

This time, Trump gained 8. You could have counted on your fingers and had your thumbs left over to twiddle.

___ 

 

Fake news and plenty of it. 

The story of the “Stolen Election” in 2020 refused to die, because ignorance was bliss for the Trump faithful, and because they were fed a daily diet of empty calories in the guise of Fox News, et. al. 

Yes. We have real “fake news” to report.

Donald Trump repeatedly claimed that two low-level Georgia poll workers stole at least 54,000 votes. Then right-wing news ran with that claim. The F.B.I. and Georgia Bureau of Investigation both said there was no evidence of stealing. An official state investigation cleared the workers again in 2023. 

It didn’t matter what investigators said – because the MAGA faithful wanted to believe. Rudy Giuliani picked up Donald’s claim and did so much lying that the two poll workers ended up fearing for their lives. Rudy couldn’t even keep the imaginary number of stolen votes straight, and on one occasion claimed the two women stole 144,000 votes – which would have been impressive, if only it were true. 

Rudy lied so much and kept lying for so long that he got hauled into court and sued for defamation; and the poll workers smoked his sorry ass. A jury awarded them $148.3 million in damages. 

Yeah. The jury did that. That’s not fake news. 

Other Trump allies kept spewing “Stolen Election” shit too. They defamed Dominion Voting Systems and Smartmatic, insisting those two companies helped make it possible for computers to steal millions of votes. Fox News lied so much, that when the company was hauled into court, and it was shown that even Fox executives didn’t believe the lies their hosts were spreading, Dominion won $787.5 million. The Georgia poll workers won a second defamation judgement against Gateway Pundit. Newsmax was forced to settle in court after Dominion again sued for damages – although Newsmax claimed they settled because the judge was bad. 

That suit cost the company $67 million. 

(It might have helped if Newsmax could have provided evidence that voting was rigged. But they could not.) 

The hits to right-wing news organizations and individuals kept coming, even unto this day. And the MAGA faithful still can’t figure it out. In September 2025, Newsmax had to agree to pay $40 million to settle a defamation suit filed by Smartmatic. Rudy Giuliani lost again and had to settle with Dominion. Then we had daffy Mike Lindell, the most stubborn of all election deniers, not counting Donald himself. By now, Lindell has lost so many ways in court, that I’m going to skip to the final knockout, with a judge having ruled that in 51 instances Lindell made false claims regarding Smartmatic, and the company’s supposed interference with election results. “The Court concludes that, based on the record presented, no reasonable trier of fact could find that any of the statements at issue are true,” said the judge.

Finally, my MAGA friends, relatives, neighbors, and former students, let us not forget the Team Trump lawyers who were disbarred and/or forced to admit to misdemeanors or felonies regarding their involvement in the furtherance of “Stolen Election” lies and plots to steal electoral votes – for Donald J. Trump. 

Jenna Ellis, Sidney Powell, John Eastman, L. Lin Wood, Giuliani (again), and Kenneth Chesebro all bit the barrister dust. 

I could name more.

Eastman, left, Giuliani, right. They called on the January 6 crowd to fight.

___ 

 

(2024) 

This brings us all the way up to now, where we confront the absolute refusal of the MAGA folks to stop a moment and scratch their noggins. So, let’s remember this number. Trump lovers insist there is no way Joe Biden got 81.3 million votes – mostly because they don’t want to believe he did. 

On the other hand, Trump lovers readily believe that the Republican vote total in 2020, rose by 11.2 million in four years, because love is blind, and they were blinded by a fog of lies so thick they couldn’t see Capitol Hill when it was under attack. And they refused to believe that our side increased the Democratic vote totals by 15.4 million, because Donald told them that Biden lost.

(Sometimes I think the MAGA folks are easily duped.) 

 

So: The 2024 election was set, a rematch between the two candidates. And because I am not a member of some political cult, I looked at the polls hundreds of times, often multiple times every day. And the polls looked bad for our side, so long as Biden was in the race. Pollsters almost all expected him to lose. There was a bit of a bump when Kamala Harris took Biden’s place. Still the polls looked bad – the same polls that had looked good for Biden four years before. 

Finally, the votes were cast and tallied. Donald had 77.3 million votes. And his fans believed he could get 77.3 million votes, because they wanted to believe. 

Harris had 75 million votes. Again, Trump fans had no trouble believing that the Democrats could drop by more than six million votes, because it is what they wanted to believe was true. 

Once again, Jill Stein of the Green Party ran – and siphoned off most of her 900,000 votes from Harris, because every environmental organization in this country begged members not to vote for Trump. 

(Democratic candidates believe in climate change, after all.) 

  

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also sucked up votes, likely from both main parties, with 800,000, and other minor candidates polled a combined 1.1 million. With neither Donald nor Kamala setting the voting population on fire with desire to see them run the country, voter turnout did fall: 

The total vote in 2024 was 155.2 million. 

 

What baffled the MAGA folk in 2020, that is, “How could Biden get all those votes,” was answered in 2024 (unless you just didn’t want to learn). Incumbents sometimes gain votes, but most often lose, because the problems a president faces are always complex and difficult to solve. 

Trump was unpopular in 2020. He lost. 

Biden was unpopular and would have lost in 2024. Harris couldn’t convince enough people she would change course. 

She lost.

There’s no mystery here, no conspiracy, no threat to MAGA freedom. That’s what the pollsters said would happen – they said Trump would lose in 2020, and Biden or Harris, too, four year later. 

The numbers aren’t hard to grasp. Biden won and then lost, like Herbert Hoover, who triumphed easily in 1928, only to be crushed in 1932.

___ 

 

The crux of the matter: Trump is a colossal liar. 

Of course, if I’m right (and the numbers say I am) we are left to undo this Gordian Knot. If Trump did lose in 2020 (he did), and his dopey followers fell for his lies, and the lies of Fox News, and all the rest (and they did), and the people who attacked Congress on January 6 had all been tricked (they were), then…

I’m sorry, to say this, if you love Trump. He’s grabbing your pussy, in a political sense. He keeps lying to you, and convincing you that you should hate Democrats, and he’s going to keep lying to you, like he lies to wives, for the next three years. But you don’t have to be fools. 

The most dangerous man – the biggest threat to democracy, the U.S. Constitution, and the rights of Americans who challenge him – is: