Trump, the Standup Comic, Says the Polls are Great

October 2, 2018: According to President Trump, his administration has done more in less than two years than any other in American history. He is, in fact—or, rather, in his own mind —the best president ever. He killed as a standup comic during his recent United Nations speech and his poll numbers are awesome.

Five short weeks from today he and the Republicans are going to mop the floor and the nation with the Democrats.

A “red wave” is coming, says Trump.

But the polls aren’t really good. I continue to check the numbers and look at congressional races around the country.

See if you can spot a trend:

In the Generic Ballot, voters are polled: Which party would they prefer to control Congress?

In the most recent polls, for example, RealClearPolitics puts Cindy Axne, a Democratic challenger up by 1 point, 44 percent to 43 percent, in Iowa’s Third Congressional District. Her opponent David Young won the same seat by a 53-40 margin in 2016.

In 2016, Lynn Jenkins, a Republican won the Second Congressional District in Kansas, with 60.9% of the vote. Today a Democrat has a four point lead against another Republican in the Second.

Kansas Third provides additional support for the idea that trouble may be brewing for the GOP. Sharice David, the Democratic challenger, holds an eight-point lead over Republican incumbent Kevin Yoder, who won last time by ten.

New Jersey’s Third Congressional District went for Trump by six in 2016 and sent a Republican to the House of Representatives. Tom MacArthur won with 59.3% of the vote. RealClear had him trailing by ten just a few days ago.

Don Bacon, the Republican incumbent in Nebraska’s 2nd District, looks safe, with a nine-point lead. That’s a rare piece of good news for the GOP in recent polls. Bacon won by less than 3,500 votes out of 279,000 two years ago.

By comparison, Dave Reichert, the Republican in Washington’s Eighth Congressional District, has to be sweating. He won his seat in 2016 with 60% of the vote. Last week, his Democratic challenger was up a point.

Republican Duncan Hunter, running in California 50 has a 53% - 38% lead. That’s impressive when you remember Duncan is under indictment for misusing campaign funds to support a lavish lifestyle. 

In the last election, however, he won with 63.5% of the vote.

California 21 is safe for the GOP (with the GOP candidate up by 11). That’s not much different than a 13-point win in 2016.

California 22 also seems safe for Rep. Devin Nunes—even if Nunes did show, as leader of the House Intelligence Committee investigating Russian interference in the 2016 elections, that he could not have found a Russian if you sent him to Moscow with Maria Butina as guide. Nunes has a 55-41 lead in the latest poll. He won two years ago with 67.6% of the vote.

California 25 has the Republican candidate up by 2. Stephen Knight won in 2016 by six points.

California 39 had a Republican up by 10 in the most recent poll.

In California 45, a Republican won in 2016 by a margin of 58.6 to 41.4%. Today, that incumbent, Mimi Walters, trails her challenger by 5.

In California 49, where a Republican squeaked out a narrow win in 2016, but plans to retire, a Democrat has a 10 point lead.

From the examples cited above, you might believe a red tide is going to sweep California. But 39 of the state’s 53 seats in the House are already controlled by Democrats; and in November they hope to capture seven more.

The current U.S. House of Representatives has 236 Republicans and 193 Democrats.
Six seats are vacant.
If the election was today the Democrats would probably capture 206 seats,
with a good chance at 40 more

Looking only at polls taken in the last two weeks, we find Republican Patrick Meehan won Pennsylvania Seven in 2016 with 59.5% of the vote. But Meehan resigned in April after facing allegations of sexual impropriety. RealClearPolitics has a Democrat ahead of the Republican in this year’s race by 8 points.

(District lines were redrawn under court order for Pennsylvania’s congressional districts. So changes are harder to assess.)

The trend lines look blue, not red, as President Trump seems to believe. In Minnesota’s Second Congressional District, the Republican incumbent who won a close race last time, now trails by three.

Iowa’s First District went red in 2016 by six points. A Democrat now has a 15-point lead over Rod Blum, the incumbent.

Leonard Lance won New Jersey 7 last election with 54% of the vote. A poll taken on September 20 showed him trailing by three.

In Texas 7, a GOP candidate is up by three. That incumbent won two years ago by 12.

In New Mexico 2, Steve Pearce walloped a Democratic challenger by a margin of 62.7 percent to 37.2 percent in 2016. Pearce is stepping down. A Democrat leads for the o[pen seat by a point, as of September 19.

Frank LoBiondo, a Republican, won New Jersey 2 by 22 points in 2016. He’s not running again and a Democrat holds a 23-point lead in a recent poll.

Florida 26 was red in 2016, with Carlos Curbelo, winning his seat over a Democrat by 12 points. As of September 18, the Republican incumbent had a narrow three-point lead in the 2018 race.

Evan Jenkins, a Republican, won West Virginia Third with 67.9% of the vote in the last election, with a Democrat polling 24 % and a Libertarian 8.1%. A poll taken on September 17, however, showed a Democratic challenger with a 36-31 lead over the GOP candidate for the seat. 

Trump won the district by a 73% to 23% margin himself.

Texas 32 has a Republican incumbent, Pete Sessions, up one over Collin Allred, his challenger, in the latest poll. Sessions got 71% of the vote two years ago, with a Libertarian getting another 19 %, a Green Party candidate getting the rest, and Democrats not bothering to run a candidate in the district.

Finally, let’s wrap this up for today. A poll just out shows Steve Chabot, Republican incumbent, holding a nine-point lead against his challenger, Aftab Pureval, in Ohio’s First Congressional District.

That sounds pretty good until you realize how gerrymandered all of Ohio’s districts are (even our Republican governor supports a non-partisan commission to redraw the lines) and realize that Chabot won his last term in the House of Representatives, with 59 percent of the votes.

Last, but not least, Republican Barbara Comstock is trying to hold onto her seat in Virginia’s Tenth Congressional District. In 2016, she won 52.7% of the vote. The poll for October 2, 2018 shows her trailing her Democratic challenger 50-44.

The Senate numbers are much closer, with polls showing Democrats in danger of losing North Dakota and Missouri but picking up seats in Nevada and Arizona.

If the poll numbers for Trump continue to be a drag on the Republican Party, it may be possible to take the Senate back too.

Trump likes to claim his own poll numbers are good.
Of course, this is a guy who can look in the mirror and like that hairdo he has.

I’m sure, it that were to happen, all good Republicans will agree that if any additional seats on the U.S. Supreme Court are opened up, Trump won’t get to fill them; because as Milksop Mitch made clear in 2016, we want the people to decide.

That was bull----, of course; but now the Republicans may have to step in it themselves.