Are Polls really "Rigged" if You Don't like the Numbers?

I’m a political junkie, of sorts. And that means I check polls with a religious fervor. You can’t be sure polls are totally accurate, of course.

Think: Hillary Clinton, our next president.

But the polls are, within limits, surprisingly accurate. President Barack Obama took office in January 2009, amid high hopes and expectations. The economy was tanking but the American people prayed he might save us. On February 16, 2009 his approval rating stood at 65.5%, his disapproval rating at 25.5%.

He was +40 in the polls.

As late as August 2, his numbers were solid: 54.1% approval, 39% disapproval. (We can assume that latter number included Donald J. Trump.)

As you may recall, the economy recovered slowly and Obama shouldered much of the blame. Two years later, his approval rating had dropped to 44% and his disapproval rating had risen to 52%. His all-time low came on December 1, 2013, when his approval rating had shriveled to 40.1% and his disapproval rating was 55.6%. 

From May 2013 till March 2016, his approval ratings were never as high as his disapproval ratings again.

Naturally, that weakness made governing hard—especially with a fractious, GOP-controlled Congress working to block his every move.

Obama’s only consolation, for what it was worth, was that Congress had an approval rating more dismal by far.

How dismal? From January 2009 to August 2017, not once has Congress had a favorable/ unfavorable rating in positive territory. For almost six years, from April 2011 until this past January, Congress had an unfavorable rating of at least 70%. That number dropped briefly this past spring. In the wake of the healthcare debacle unfavorable ratings for the legislative branch again top 70%. See below:

In other words, the polls have generally been accurate in reflecting changing national moods. For Trump supporters, that must be a sobering truth. At the lowest point, during two terms in office, Obama was “underwater” by only 15.5 points.

(All numbers are available at RealClear Politics if you’d like to check.)

That’s why, if you approve of President Trump, or you’re a Republican, who thinks your party knows best, you have to be deeply worried at present. 

Sure. You can fall back on outright denial.

You can tell yourself, as the President does, that the polls are “rigged.” But if the polls aren’t always predictive, and one must recognize there is a margin of error, the numbers now are exceedingly grim.

Let’s start with a poll by Rasmussen. Generally, Rasmussen’s numbers run a little more favorably for Republicans than other polls. Rasmussen, for example, always has a 100% response. Everyone polled either says they “approve” or “disapprove” of a president. There are no undecideds.

In the first days of the Trump Administration, polls were generally mixed. But Rasmussen recorded his best numbers ever—on January 24, 2017, when Trump had a favorable rating of 57%, an unfavorable rating of only 43%. Twice, on January 31 and again on February 14, Rasmussen still had President Trump in positive territory, 53%-47%. In late March a Reuters/IPSOS poll had the new president tied in the polls, 47% approval, 47% saying the reverse.

Since then there have been more than a hundred national polls and Trump has found himself in negative territory every time. Again, varying polls produce varying results. But current numbers are daunting, if you love Trump. The latest Rasmussen poll, on August 1, has Trump down 38%-62%. At -24, he finds himself in territory Obama never plumbed. And you can’t argue that the Rasmussen poll is “rigged.” Rasmussen’s numbers back in January were the best Trump has so far received. Even worse, if you’re Ivanka or Jared or Don Jr., or maybe Vladimir Putin, the President appears to be sinking fast.

Quinnipiac has numbers out this week that put Mr. Trump down by 28 points, with only 33% of Americans approving of the job he is doing and 61% saying they disapprove. See below:

If you love Trump, there’s little solace to be found; but you might take comfort in knowing that Barack Obama recovered in the end. By the time he left office on January 20, 2017, his approval rating had risen to 57.2%.

Only 39.3% of Americans disapproved of the job he had done.

Having said all that, right now, Donald J. Trump appears to be in serious trouble. With his highly abrasive style, a style unlikely to wear well with the American people over time, he may have serious trouble recovering.

Those of us who consider him a menace to American democracy can take some comfort in that thought.